{"id":1822,"date":"2016-04-12T10:40:51","date_gmt":"2016-04-12T14:40:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.runkevinrun.com\/?p=1822"},"modified":"2016-04-12T10:40:51","modified_gmt":"2016-04-12T14:40:51","slug":"playing-the-logistics-percentages","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/?p=1822","title":{"rendered":"Playing the Logistics Percentages"},"content":{"rendered":"

C-3PO: Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1.
\nHan Solo: Never tell me the odds.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I’m probably a minor disappointment to Han Solo. I’m playing the odds in my logistics without knowing the odds but unfortunately I’m getting cocky.<\/p>\n

After successfully avoiding the rain in St Louis<\/a>, I’m feeling overconfident in the percentages. So last night as I spent an hour or so rebooking hotel and cars for the next few months of runcations (thereby saving almost $100 for the exact same hotels and cars), I noticed something about a late May trip. My flight doesn’t get in until 11:28 PM and the rental car counter closes at Midnight. Should be fine assuming there’s no delays or issues with the flights, right? How often does that happen? Airlines are all about on-time arrivals and properly maintaining their aircraft, right? This should totally work out in my favor.<\/a><\/p>\n

My travel spreadsheet is a panoply of colors, some indicating pre-paid and non-refundable airfares or car rental bids on priceline, some indicating Southwest flights that can be cancelled without penalty, some just highlighted as still to be booked.<\/p>\n

This morning I found out one of the tour packages I have coming up is requiring travel insurance. Seems like a waste to me, just throwing money at the odds of something going wrong. But as it was a requirement I plunked down the credits. Only moments after I clicked the final “Submit” button did I notice I had the wrong month of travel — right dates, wrong month. I’ve got 14 days to cancel and who knows, maybe I’ll book and tell the tour operator I’ve got insurance and show them the policy details, then cancel it before going.<\/p>\n

That’s probably not a good idea. Has a tinge of impropriety and maybe even fraud about it.<\/p>\n

What’s the worst that could happen?<\/p>\n

Han Solo: “How’re we doin’?”<\/a>
\n Luke: “Same as always.”<\/a>
\n Han Solo: “That bad, huh?”<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

C-3PO: Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1. Han Solo: Never tell me the odds. I’m probably a minor disappointment to Han Solo. I’m playing the odds in my logistics without knowing the odds but unfortunately I’m getting cocky. After successfully avoiding the rain in St Louis, I’m […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[541,539,538,536,542,88,540,537],"class_list":["post-1822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-car","tag-cocky","tag-insurance","tag-logistics","tag-midnight","tag-odds","tag-rental","tag-spreadsheet"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1822"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1822\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/runkevinrun.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}